Joe Brunoli
2 min readJul 28, 2023

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This seems utterly fantastical to me. More magical thinking and wishcasting.

The reality is that Russia has a stable economy and a stable society - certainly when compared to the US and EU.

Even the IMF is predicting 1.5% growth for RF in 2023.

The only instability in Russia has come from those to the RIGHT of Putin, such as Prigozhin and Strelkov, who were agitating for a more aggressive strategy in Ukraine. They do not like Putin's slow-walking "rope-a-dope" strategy.

But they have now been flushed out, discredited and sidelined in one way or another. Putin is left standing more powerful and popular than ever, and the people are united behind him and behind the war effort. And the UkroNazis' attacks on Moscow and Crimea only serve to stiffen the Russian people's resolve.

Your posts reflect the main problem with the Western view of Russia - your analysis starts from a very radicalised bias against Russia, and so your tendency is to draw false conclusions because they fit in your premeditated worldview.

The fact is that Putin is playing a long game, and the strategy on the battleground - namely to invite the Ukrainians to attack and then attriting them devastatingly in terms of manpower and weapons - is working very well. The West and Ukraine have now been suckered into committing the last of their reserves into one giant "push" that the NYT says will last 1-3 weeks.

After this last gasp, the Russians will advance, and it will be quick. I believe that by spring 2024 the Russians will be sitting on the Polish border - or else a negotiated settlement will have been reached under which western Poland (Galicia) reverts back to Polish control, Kiev and all of eastern and southern Ukraine becomes Russia forever, and "the territory known as Ukraine" goes back to being what it always was - a buffer zone, a border land between Russia and the West.

That is, of course, assuming that other countries do not interfere directly on the side of Ukraine— either under the aegis of NATO or as the so-called “Bucharest Nine”.

Poland and Lithuania are already preparing for some sort of intervention, it seems.

If that happens, then all bets are off.

In the meantime, if you are looking for internal unrest, I suggest you take a peek at what's going on inside of France, Germany and USA.

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Joe Brunoli
Joe Brunoli

Written by Joe Brunoli

Joe is a Yank with dual US-EU citizenship and comments on trends, politics and more. Buy Joe a coffee here: https://ko-fi.com/euroyankee

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