I am just not buying this argument, I agree that the peacetime army Putin sent in a year ago was nowhere near fit for purpose. But that is not the case now. I believe Scott Ritter and Col. MacGregor. What they say makes much more sense to me.
I only know some things:
- The Ruble is the strongest currency in the world.
- Russian energy exports are at 95%+ of pre-war levels, thanks to new partnerships in BRICS.
- The Russian economy is growing, and IMF expects it to grow by 0.3% this year.
Given these things, I have to believe that Russia, as the powerful and resource-rich nation that it is, would be able to rise to the occasion. It just makes sense - unless you are a racist Russophobe.
I believe that Putin attacked a year ago thinking he would simply push Ukraine and the West to the negotiating table. He went in light, with "kid gloves" and tried to minimise damage, believing he could negotiate a settlement.
He was wrong. So now the gloves are off.