Firstly, whatever you think the outcome will be, bear in mind that the US does not give one shit about Ukraine. The purpose of the war is not to defend Ukraine's sovereignty or to maintain the "rules based order". It is to "weaken Russia" (as DefSec Lloyd Austin stated last May) and to provoke a "Moscow Maidan" - i.e., regime change in Russia.

If the West fails to force the economic collapse of Russia and/or the removal of Putin and his replacement with a Yeltsin 2.0, then the whole Ukrainian venture will be deemed to be a failure - regardless of where the eventual borders will be drawn.

It is looking increasingly like Putin is not going to "pay" for anything - the Russian economy is stronger than ever, the BRICS alliance and SCO are growing apace, and de-dollarization is proceeding at breakneck speed.

I am still hoping for a resolution by fall, assuming the ground in Ukraine dries out enough for tanks to move.